Running a simulation in MIRAGE-e #
If the baseline consists in only one step, the Simul.gms
file can be
called directly from RefStep1 :
r=.\Restart\refstep1 s=.\Restart\sim gdx=.\GDX\sim lo=3
Otherwise, Simul.gms
has to be called from the RefStep2:
r=.\Restart\refstep2 s=.\Restart\sim gdx=.\GDX\sim lo=3
Trade simulation #
Trade policy simulations are very easy to implement, as only the
scenario in Simul.gms
have to be changed, for instance, a full
world-wide liberalization only requires the following lines :
Tariff_C(i,r,s,Temps,sim)$(ord(Temps)\>1) = 0;
Tariff_IC(i,r,s,Temps,sim)$(ord(Temps)\>1) = 0;
Different trade-related parameters can be part of the simulation :
- $Tariff^C$ and $Tariff^{IC}$ are tariff rates from MAcMap respectively affecting final and intermediate goods
- $taxEXP^C$ and $taxEXP^{IC}$ are generic export taxes, and $taxMFA^C$ and $taxMFA^{IC}$ specific export taxes related to the multifibre agreement
- $NTM^C$ and $NTM^{IC}$ are ad-valorem equivalents of NTMs in goods (see here)
- $taxSER^C$ and $taxSER^{IC}$ are ad-valorem equivalents of NTMs in Services (see here)
- $tCostTF$ is the ad-valorem equivalent for time spent in customs
Climate change policy simulation #
Climate change policy simulations require several additional steps
1. Define carbon markets #
Carbon market definition occurs at the calibration step: any change in markets require to run the model from Calib.gms
All GHG mitigation policies in MIRAGE-e 2 are centered around carbon
markets, all indexed by the set c_em
. A carbon market is just a
mapping of emissions to the perimeter of their climate change policy.
Definition of carbon markets #
The carbon markets have to be written directly in the file
data/maps/c_Markets.gms
following the example:
\* Example
cEUETS "EU ETS sectors" cEUNonETS "EU Non-ETS sectors and
households" cCAN "Canadian market" cUSA "USA market"
Mapping of sectors to carbon markets #
The mapping of sectors to carbon markets can be done in different ways:
- Direct mapping in the file
data/maps/map_jrCarbon.gms
as in the example :
OthManuf.France.cEUETS OthEITE.France.cEUETS
Chemistry.France.cEUETS Minerals.France.cEUETS OthManuf.OthEU27.cEUETS
OthEITE.OthEU27.cEUETS Chemistry.OthEU27.cEUETS Minerals.OthEU27.cEUETS
- Or by code in the file
data/maps/map_Carbon.gms
:
Map_carb(j,"USA","cUSA") = yes; Map_carb(j,r,'cEUNonETS')$(not
Map_carb(j,r,'cEUETS') and (sameas(r,"France") or
sameas(r,"OthEU27")))
= yes;
Mapping of households emissions to carbon markets #
Mapping of households to carbon markets is done in the file
data/maps/map_hCarbon.gms
, e.g.:
France.cEUNonETS OthEU27.cEUNonETS
2. Define the policy simulation #
Principle #
GHG mitigation policies are defined on a carbon-market basis, and can be of two different types in MIRAGE-e 2:
- A carbon tax -> set the $GHGTax$ parameter
- A cap and trade system -> set the $GHGCap$ and
$GHGIntensityCap$ parameters
- $GHGCap$ caps the level of emission
- $GHGIntensityCap$ caps the GHG-intensity of GDP
To set a carbon policy, you simply need to set one of these variables to a value different from 0, e.g.:
GHGTax("cEUETS",Temps,sim)$(ord(Temps)\>1) = 0.01;
More convenient: the batinclude utility #
In addition, MIRAGE-e proposes a batinclude utility
ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms
to ease the implementation of linear emission
capping. This batinclude propose GHG caps that can can be of three
different types:
- Aboslute : the target reduction is labeled in percetage change from a reference emissions in the past
- Intensity : the target reduction is labeled as a percentage reduction in GHG-intensity of GDP from a reference intensity in the past
- BAU : the target reduction is labeled as a percentage reduction in emissions in a future date, compared to the BAU scenario
The syntax is the following:
./ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms %Market% %Reduction_type% %Reference_year%
%Init_year% %End_year% %Percentage_cut%
``` Where:
- `%Market%` is one of the carbon market defined as explained above
- `%Type%` is the type of commitment, and can be `Absolute`,
`Intensity` or `BAU`
- `%Reference_year%` is the basis for computing the reduction
commitment (not necessary for a BAU-type commitment)
- `%Init_year%` is the first year where the carbon policy will be
implemented
- `%End_year%` if the last year the carbon policy will be implemented
- `%Percentage_cut%` is the percentage reduction (1 means 100%
reduction) compared to the reference_year
Here is an example for the three different cases:
``` gams
$batinclude ./ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms cCanada Absolute "2011" "2011" "2030" 0.424412686089317
$batinclude ./ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms cChina Intensity "2011" "2011" "2030" 0.515679332882182
$batinclude ./ProgGMS/GHGTarget.gms cMexico BAU "0" "2011" "2030" 0.22
Specific simulations #
Entering / leaving the EU (Brexit) #
TBA
NTMs in a free trade agreement #
TBA
Paris Agreement on climate change #
The Paris agreement on climate change is a policy used quite often, especially when integrated in the baseline for any trade policy evaluation.
Default Paris agreement #
The default Paris agreement implementation only works with the standard Paris agreement aggregation of regions and sectors. In case of a change in sectors, please check you defined correctly the carbon markets. In case the region aggregation has changed among non-EU Paris agreement signatories, proceed as with any change in the Paris agreement below.
For the case of the Paris agreement, a specific GAMS file is prepared
for an easy integration in the baseline (RefStep2.gms
) or as a policy
simulation (Simul.gms
) : ProgGMS/ParisAgreement.gms
. This file
proposes an implementation of the Paris Agreement in a standard
aggregation, and only need to be called from Simul.gms
in case of a
policy simulation or RefStep2.gms
in case of a baseline:
$include ./ProgGMS/ParisAgreement.gms
This file contains:
- The objectives of non-EU regions converted into emission reduction from 2011 emissions (see below)
- The specific objectives for EU and other ETS regions
- EU-ETS sectors respect their own reduction objective
- The commitment for the rest of the economy (other sectors and households) are set to compensate the difference with the Paris agreement commitment.
Changing the Paris agreement #
All the conversion of the Paris agreement commitments to reductions compared to 2011 are done in R in the NDCs_R utility. Base NDC data (from ClimateObserver.org) as well as emissions data used for the conversion are handled directly in this R utility.
-
Clone the utility from git repository
mirage-util-ndcs
-
Take the CorMM.txt file generated by the aggregation program and copy is inside the data directory of mirage-util-ndcs
-
Run the NDC aggregation utility
-
Adapt the
ParisAgreement.gms
file such that the$batinclude
lines match the NDC utility output located inoutput/NDCs_MIRAGE.csv